Making sense of the COVID-19 world and finding a new North Star

As I was reflecting on where we are with COVID-19  this week, I decided I needed some context to find solid ground.   In conversations with colleagues, leaders, friends and family, I am struck by how much we have all zoomed in on this moment – “how are you today?”,  “what is the data this week?”, “when we will go back to work?”, etc.

Concurrently there are conversations about other big changes including anti-black racism, politics (mostly US centric) and even Gypsy Moths and Asian Giant Hornets (which seem ironically racialized).  It’s easy to lose balance, priority and perspective – to lose sight of our north star.

It feels like we need to step back, re-group, re-plan and re-launch.  As always, this is a my learning journal – I write to process and get clarity. I “work out loud” and share in case it might have some value for others.  It is not a recommendation or prescription … perhaps it might be one input of  many.  Would love to hear your thoughts.

The power of Mental Maps and Mindsets

Pre-Covid we had a 5-year family plan – a Mental Map of our life …. it was a rough idea of when our youngest would graduate and might move out, the work we were focused on, home projects, thoughts on family vacations and, ultimately, retirement.  It was based on some mindsets including as our impression that we had some control over such decisions (timing, choices, etc).

As of April all plans were paused while we dealt with immediate concerns of ensuring  family could stay well in short term – setting up  whole different home/ school / work paradigms, reaching out to extended family, learning new skills, securing income (and trying not to look at our investments), figuring how how to stay calm (hello hobbies including more basil and mint than I know what to do with), trying to figure out how to help/appreciate our essential workers, etc. We really “zoomed in” on the close up – figuratively and literally (as we “stayed home”).

The first mindset challenged was around the degree of control that we had over decisions.  What we really had was a pretty linear path based on some assumptions about what was stable (eg health, freedom of movement, travel, economy) with a little contingency built in.  All of these assumptions have been up-ended.  We had built what Nasim Nicholas Taleb (author of “The Black Swan” and “Anti-Fragile”) might call a fragile system – we did not allow for the possibility of such radical changes as COVID-19 continues to demand.

So many other mindsets (colloquialisms / assumptions) continue to be challenged – just to scratch the surface:

• Governments will lead well and fairly
  • Federal and Provincial / State bodies will cooperate smoothly
  • Governments will take direction from science
  • WHO will provide timely thought leadership and global coordination
• Science is binary (right or wrong), learning progresses linearly, important knowledge is shared
  • Best practices will be known, agreed and adopted quickly
• We learn from our challenges / we only get as much challenge as we can handle / people get what they deserve
• Hope for the best / hope is not a plan
• Everything else will remain stable while we work through COVID-19

None of these have held.  I am sure you could add to the list.

I find myself looking for new approaches and mindsets to navigate through.

The Approach: Agility over Fragility

Okay, putting aside “the shoemaker’s children have no shoes” (… sure I could have been more agile in my planning but who saw COVID-19 coming?). I have decided to cut myself a bit of slack – after all this is pretty unprecedented in our lifetime.  Instead I will amplify the best practices that I can find.

My go-to model is The Agile Model ® which I shared in my last post here.

I do find the capabilities of Anticipating Change (Visioning, Sensing, Monitoring) to be especially relevant here and the full iterative cycle to be a good framework for refining my thinking.   And it is ‘forgiving’ in the sense that if I miss something in the first cycle I can pick it up and improve as I go. This puts some “flex” into my system.

Of course there is room for amplifying self care and resilience as well.

Zoom out for perspective, zoom in to refine.  Rinse and repeat a la Agile Model

Maybe my mental map was too zoomed in.  To extend the mental map metaphor, I had a good view of the city but I could not see the weather coming in a province / state away …. As I zoom back out to allow for a wider view I am re-thinking about the assumptions I made around:

• Economy
• Time and timing
• Knowns, unknowns, assumptions, scenarios, contingencies
• Variations and options
• Over planning vs accepting and flexing

Here’s a bit of how the zooming out/zooming in is working so far:

• Of course there are many speculating on how long will COVID-19 go on, which usually focuses on when will there be a vaccine
  • Let’s assume that the earliest a vaccine might be available is early 2021 and earliest will impact most of us is late 2021 as production ramps up and roll out happens
• This means that the economy, currently in recession, will continue / exacerbate in recession through 2021 with recovery beginning with hope / materialization of vaccine in late 2021 / early 2022
• What does that mean for the accommodations that we have put in place now for COVID-19?
  • We “unfroze” our Feb 2020 state to rapidly make a lot of changes to accommodate COVID-19, most notably work from home
    • I will bet that by 2022 this will be a ‘new normal’ for individuals and organizations – there will be many repercussions of this.  For me personally, it will allow me to keep loving my work longer
• What does that mean for schooling in the next 2 years … well that is still shaking out.  In my humble opinion the education system was already broken in so many ways.  Just maybe strategic-minded education leaders could see this as an opportunity to re-shape not just delivery of learning but learning itself.
  • For my family, we are all past high school and capable of independent, online study.  This may open opportunities for us.
  • If you have Primary or Secondary age children hold on to your hats – perhaps become engaged with your government representatives because change will be essential.  Even after kids can get back in classrooms they will have been disrupted for a minimum of 2 years.  More will be required than a return to status quo.
• What are our options?
  • Is our current housing / work situation right for us for a 2-year run way?
  • What about after that?
  • What should we be preparing now to have more flexibility going forward?

Sure this is messy.  And if I were a consultant talking to a client I might even say that “this is exactly as messy as it should be to move through iterations of planning and refinement”.

North Star

As I stand back and think about a North Star … a mindset I am choosing to prioritize … here are the components:

• Hope springs eternal – The long arc of evolution and the zeniths of change
  • If we zoom out to look across time (these blew my mind – “List of Time Periods” and geology divides time into eons, eras, periods, epochs,and ages) we remember that time is a very long arc of  evolution and this event in it is actually really short.
  • Within this long arc there are moments of change that have their own zeniths.  Even within our current age, COVID-19 will be a blip.  In that time it may radically change us but it will likely be momentary even within our lifetimes.
  • We do have choices to make within this moment but, pray, most of us will find ways to navigate through.  This gives me a mindset on which to pin hope and optimism.
• Optimism is a conscious choice – it feels radical at this point but it is what is required
  • In May I listened to a podcast that has continued to resonate with me.  Eric Ries (of “The Lean Start Up”) interviewed Carl Leibert, a global business executive and board member with more than 30 years of experience creating shareholder value (AutoNation, 24Hour Fitness, The Home Depot, Circuit City, USAA, General Electric). He has led through crises including 9/11 attacks, the Great Recession and Hurricane Harvey.  Prior to that he was an officer in the Navy.  Carl believes that times of crisis are also times of opportunity that can be approached with positivity even in the face of tragedy – when he talked about “radical optimism” I was enthralled. Here’s the link
• The only fridge magnet that comes with me everywhere – “Do what you can, where you are, with what you have.” Teddy Roosevelt
  • I find myself thinking about the refrain “Time waits for no man” (well no person really) … and feel a sense of urgency.  However I often run the risk of churn if I rush to action without reflection and direction.  The concept of putting “one foot in front of the other” helps me zoom in on what I can do in this moment.
  • There is a mantra in the Agile world (perhaps someone in my network can help me with the source?) that speaks to “progress over perfection”.  It is a variation on the iteration / refinement theme.  It is a forgiving mindset and a way of building resilience into the system.

The common denominator is a deliberate and conscious optimism.  I will be reflecting and refining this further.

What is on your mind as you traverse these times? How are you coping / planning? Wishing you all, all the best.
 

 
Change Whisperer by www.gailseverini.com is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License.